Abstract: In this talk, we will discuss whether Arrow’s theorem of the deductible can be extended to the case

of belief heterogeneity, which allows the insured and the insurer to have different beliefs in the loss

distribution. To exclude ex post moral hazard, both parties are asked to pay more for a larger realization of

the insurable loss. A necessary and sufficient condition on the belief heterogeneity is obtained for the

optimality of stop-loss insurance. If this condition is not satisfied, the optimal insurance solution is shown to satisfy an equation. Via this equation, we can analyze the optimality of some interesting insurance types.

Bio: 池义春，中央财经大学中国精算研究院研究员。现主要从事精算学与风险管理中的风险理论、最优保险/再保险设计

以及变额年金的定价和对冲等研究，主持过两项国家自然科学基金项目和一项教育部重点研究基地重大课题，在国际著

名的精算学杂志ASTIN Bulletin、Insurance: Mathematics and Economics、North American Actuarial Journal和Scandinavian

Actuarial Journal上发表了二十多篇学术论文。2012年荣获北美产险精算学会Charles A. Hachemeister奖，2015年破格晋升为研究员。